Neoadjuvant FOLFIRINOX for patients with borderline resectable or locally advanced pancreatic cancer: Results of a decision analysis.

Abstract

4117 Background: With the advent of more effective therapies for metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), efforts to incorporate these agents, such as FOLFIRINOX, into the neoadjuvant setting are increasing. However, the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of using neoadjuvant FOLFIRINOX for patients with borderline resectable or locally advanced PDAC are unknown. We performed a decision analysis to assess the value of neoadjuvant FOLFIRINOX versus upfront surgery and adjuvant therapy. Methods: We developed a mathematical simulation model to evaluate the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of neoadjuvant FOLFIRINOX compared to upfront surgery and adjuvant therapy. We used published and institutional data as inputs to inform model development. Model outcomes included overall and disease-free survival, net benefits expressed as discounted quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs in US dollars, and cost-effectiveness expressed as an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. We used deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses to explore the uncertainty of model assumptions. Results: Model estimated median overall survival (29 vs 23 months) and disease-free survival (14 vs 13 months) were better for neoadjuvant strategy compared with upfront surgery. Neoadjuvant strategy resulted in an additional 0.68 life-years gained, or 0.57 QALYs, at a cost of $59,000/QALY gained. Sensitivity analysis found that cancer recurrence rates affected model results the most. Our findings were otherwise robust with respect to changes in other model parameters, including chemotherapy toxicity, surgical complications and cancer mortality. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses showed that neoadjuvant strategy was cost-effective 80% of the time with a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000/QALY. Conclusions: Our model results demonstrate that neoadjuvant strategy is preferable to upfront surgery for patients with borderline resectable or locally advanced PDAC from both an efficacy and cost-effectiveness standpoint. Additional clinical data are needed to further define the long-term effectiveness of neoadjuvant FOLFIRINOX to confirm our results.