NEHRP Turns 40

Abstract

This year, the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) turns 40, four decades since the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act of 1977 was enacted establishing the Program, spurring numerous federal, state, and community actions to reduce earthquake losses in the U.S.A. and its territories and setting a standard for earthquake loss‐reduction projects internationally. Four agencies are partners in NEHRP: the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST, the lead agency), the National Science Foundation (NSF), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Remarkably few major earthquakes have occurred since 1977, in terms of economic impact, so the earthquake threat has faded from the memories of most Americans, even as geologists and seismologists have identified and quantified a number of fault systems that pose risks of national economic scale. The genesis of NEHRP has been well covered in previous summaries by Wallace (1996) and Hamilton (2003), each of whom described the earthquakes, the people, and the reports that led to the passage of the 1977 Act. The 1964 Alaska and 1971 San Fernando earthquakes were, of course, seminal events. Several expert panels weighed in, there was great enthusiasm for earthquake prediction, and even the ephemeral Palmdale Bulge contributed. There is no need to repeat those good stories here; instead, I will review what has been accomplished since the Act was passed and what key objectives are yet to be realized. In this space, it will not be possible to cover this topic comprehensively, so indulge me while I survey just a few highlights. First, remarkably few major U.S. earthquakes have occurred since 1977, at least in terms of economic impact. In fact, only three have caused losses greater than $1 billion: 1989 Loma Prieta, $10.7 billion; 1994 Northridge, $64.0 billion; and 2001 Nisqually, $2.7 billion (Wilkerson, …