Negative Returns: U.S. Military Aid, Domestic Institutions and Anti-American Terrorism

Abstract

Using cross-national data for 148 countries between 1996 and 2015, we investigate the relationship between U.S. military aid, institutions in aid-receiving countries and anti-American terrorism. We find that countries — such as Columbia and Pakistan — that receive more military aid from the United States are more likely to produce anti-American terrorism. Studying the underlying mechanisms, we find that U.S. military aid contributes to poor domestic institutional conditions; in turn, poor domestic institutions incite anti-American violence. Considering these findings, we argue that U.S. military aid amplifies anti-American terrorism by undermining counter-terrorism effectiveness and facilitating local grievances associated with poor institutional quality.