Negative price spiral caused by renewables? Electricity price prediction on the German market for 2030

Abstract

Logistic regression models were built and used to show the influence of energy sources, fuel, emission prices and time variables on low and negative price events. The models were tuned and validated with data from 2019 to 2021. The results show that volatile generation of wind and solar power raises the likelihood of low and negative electricity prices. Flexible power sources such as gas power plants, as well as high grid load and conventional generation, relate to higher, more stable market prices. Higher CO2 allowance prices also reduce the likelihood of negative prices, as flexible gas power plants with lower CO2 emissions compared to inflexible coal power plants are more flexible. The biggest influence of the Covid-19-pandemic was on the grid load in 2020 and 2021, which dropped heavily and lowered the electricity price on the market. The prediction analysis shows that in 2030 more low and negative price events will occur if the power supply does not become more flexible. Gas power plants, especially gas turbine peaker plants, help to reduce low prices in the future.