Negative life events and self-control as correlates of self-assessed re-offending probability among Finnish prisoners

Abstract

This article examines the correlates of self-assessed re-offending probability (SARP) in a sample of Finnish short-term prisoners. The research focuses on the role of factors related to social control when individual self-control is held constant, and explores how selected prison activities relate to SARP. The associations between social control and re-offending probability manifest some erosion when self-control and criminality are factored in, a finding that replicates prior studies. However, several variables capturing a person’s ties to social control institutions remained robust correlates of SARP. Having many siblings, living in a nuclear family during childhood, parental supervision during childhood and youth, and avoiding negative events in adulthood appear to reduce the number of offences projected to the future. In prison, work participation, participation in alcohol abuse treatment, and remorse for past crimes are associated with reduced SARP. We draw on cross-sectional data combining a quantitative survey ( N = 351) and qualitative interviews ( N = 37).