Needed Changes in State and Local Crop and Livestock Reports

Abstract

OQUTLOOK work involves an appraisal of all the facts and estimates about current and prospective demand, production and price trends, and the effect of government programs; so that the individual or family having access to outlook can make the best possible estimate of what is going to happen in the future. As such, outlook depends heavily upon accurate and timely information about crop and livestock production and price prospects. During the past decade-and especially during the last 5 years-we have experienced a rapid growth in the acceptance of outlook. Nearly every farm magazine has an outlook section. Television and radio stations carry regular outlook programs. Newspapers have outlook columns. Private industry and agricultural colleges have expanded their outlook activity. The average farmer is brought in contact with outlook regularly; and he is paying more attention to it in making his farm plans. This places additional demands upon the scope and accuracy of state and local crop and livestock reports. Let us break down the problem into three segments: Can we improve the accuracy of the estimates now being made? Can we make changes in the timing of the reports now being made? Can we increase the amount of information collected? In considering this problem, let us make clear that our sights are set to the future; and let us begin with the accuracy of reports. This part of the problem has become more important with the increased use of outlook. I believe that most state and federal statisticians are aware of the