Abstract

Ninety percent of the people added to the planet over the next 30 years will live in African and Asian cities, and a large portion of these populations will reside in deprived neighborhoods defined by slum conditions, informal settlement, or inadequate housing. The four current approaches to neighborhood deprivation mapping are largely siloed, and each fall short of producing accurate, timely, and comparable maps that reflect local contexts. The first approach, classifying “slum households” in census and survey data, reflects household-level rather than neighborhood-level deprivation. The second approach, field-based mapping, can produce the most accurate and context-relevant maps for a given neighborhood, however it requires substantial resources, preventing up-scaling. The third and fourth approaches, human (visual) interpretation and machine classification of air or spaceborne imagery, both overemphasize informal settlements, and fail to represent key social characteristics of deprived areas such as lack of tenure, exposure to pollution, and lack of public services. We summarize common areas of understanding, and present a set of requirements and a framework to produce routine, accurate maps of deprived urban areas that can be used by local-to-international stakeholders for advocacy, planning, and decision-making across Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs). We suggest that machine learning models be extended to incorporate social area-level covariates and regular contributions of up-to-date and context-relevant field-based classification of deprived urban areas.

Highlights

  • Most low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are in the midst of urban transitions, or will be soon, and are facing rapid growth of slum-like communities

  • The second case study from Bangladesh demonstrates the classification of deprived urban neighborhoods using human interpretation of satellite imagery and field verification, and highlights opportunities and limitations of using secondary spatial data sources for deprivation area mapping

  • The 2005–2006 and 2016–2017 National Family Health Surveys (NFHSs) in India were among the first routine national household surveys to use urban “slum” areas in their sample design

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Summary

Introduction

Most low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are in the midst of urban transitions, or will be soon, and are facing rapid growth of slum-like communities. The United Nations (UN) expects that between 2018 and 2030, megacities such as Kinshasa (D.R. Congo), Delhi (India), and Dhaka (Bangladesh) will each add more than 700,000 people per year on average through 2030 (UN-DESA 2019). An estimated 2.5 billion people will be added to the planet by. 2050, with 90% of that population increase concentrated in Asian and African cities alone This is cause for concern given that many of the LMICs within these regions are currently facing various development challenges, which impede their ability to adequately accommodate this future population growth (Mahabir et al 2016)

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