Near-real time detection of conflict-related explosions or suspicious events using seismological data 

Abstract

Apart from classical earthquake monitoring, seismological data can also be used to detect explosions in near-real-time on both regional and global scales. We demonstrate how seismic and infrasound data can provide more comprehensive and objective information about conflict-related explosions or suspicious events that might be the result of targeted attacks. We can identify the underwater explosions at the Nord Stream pipeline infrastructure in the Baltic Sea in September 2022. Cross-correlation analysis allowed us to identify sub-events several seconds apart which can be associate with specific locations along the pipelines. Furthermore, we detect a signal at the Finish seismic array in October 2023 which may be associated with the damage along the Balticconnector. The other example is from Ukraine, where we present the ability to automatically identify and locate ground explosions related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict with data from the Malin array (AKASG). Between February and November 2022, we observe more than 1,200 explosions from the Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Chernihiv provinces. Both seismic and infrasound detections can be used to verify and improve accurate reporting of military attacks and help to provide an unprecedented view of an active conflict zone. We analyze events with a variety of seismo-acoustic signatures and significant differences in explosive yield. These can be associated with various types of military attacks, including artillery shelling, cruise missile attacks, airstrikes, or the destruction of the Kakhovka dam NE of Cherson.