Nearly Magnitude‐Invariant Stress Drops in Simulated Crack‐Like Earthquake Sequences on Rate‐and‐State Faults with Thermal Pressurization of Pore Fluids

Abstract

AbstractStress drops, inferred to be magnitude‐invariant, are a key characteristic used to describe natural earthquakes. Theoretical studies and laboratory experiments indicate that enhanced dynamic weakening, such as thermal pressurization of pore fluids, may be present on natural faults. At first glance, magnitude invariance of stress drops and enhanced dynamic weakening seem incompatible since larger events may experience greater weakening and should thus have lower final stresses and higher stress drops. We hypothesize that enhanced dynamic weakening can be reconciled with magnitude‐invariant stress drops due to larger events having lower average prestress when compared to smaller events. We conduct numerical simulations of long‐term earthquake sequences in fault models with rate‐and‐state friction and thermal pressurization, and in the parameter regime that results mostly in crack‐like ruptures, we find that such models can explain both the observationally inferred stress drop invariance and increasing breakdown energy with event magnitude. Smaller events indeed have larger average initial stresses than medium‐sized events, and we find nearly constant stress drops for events spanning up to two orders of magnitude in average slip, comparable to approximately six orders of magnitude in seismic moment. Segment‐spanning events have more complex behavior, which depends on the properties of the arresting velocity‐strengthening region at the edges of the faults.