Nearly Instantaneous Time-Varying Reproduction Number for Contagious Diseases-a Direct Approach Based on Nonlinear Regression.

Abstract

While the world recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic, another outbreak of contagious disease remains the most likely future risk to public safety. Now is therefore the time to equip health authorities with effective tools to ensure they are operationally prepared for future events. We propose a direct approach to obtain reliable nearly instantaneous time-varying reproduction numbers for contagious diseases, using only the number of infected individuals as input and utilisingthe dynamics of the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model. Our approach is based on a multivariate nonlinear regression model simultaneously assessing parameters describing the transmission and recovery rate as a function of the SIR model. Shortly after start of a pandemic, our approach enables estimation of daily reproduction numbers. It avoids numerous sources of additional variation and provides a generic tool for monitoring the instantaneous reproduction numbers. We use Norwegian COVID-19 data as case study and demonstrate that our results are well aligned with changes in the number of infected individuals and the change points following policy interventions. Our estimated reproduction numbers are notably less volatile, provide more credible short-time predictions for the number of infected individuals, and are thus clearly favorable compared with the results obtained by two other popular approaches used for monitoring a pandemic. The proposed approach contributes to increased preparedness to future pandemics of contagious diseases, as it can be used as a simple yet powerful tool to monitor the pandemics, provide short-term predictions, and thus support decision making regarding timely and targeted control measures.