Abstract
Understanding the location, intensity, and likely duration of volcanic hazards is key to reducing risk from volcanic eruptions. Here, we use a novel near-real-time dataset comprising Volcanic Ash Advisories (VAAs) issued over 10 years to investigate global rates and durations of explosive volcanic activity. The VAAs were collected from the nine Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (VAACs) worldwide. Information extracted allowed analysis of the frequency and type of explosive behaviour, including analysis of key eruption source parameters (ESPs) such as volcanic cloud height and duration. The results reflect changes in the VAA reporting process, data sources, and volcanic activity through time. The data show an increase in the number of VAAs issued since 2015 that cannot be directly correlated to an increase in volcanic activity. Instead, many represent increased observations, including improved capability to detect low- to mid-level volcanic clouds (FL101–FL200, 3–6 km asl), by higher temporal, spatial, and spectral resolution satellite sensors. Comparison of ESP data extracted from the VAAs with the Mastin et al. (J Volcanol Geotherm Res 186:10–21, 2009a) database shows that traditional assumptions used in the classification of volcanoes could be much simplified for operational use. The analysis highlights the VAA data as an exceptional resource documenting global volcanic activity on timescales that complement more widely used eruption datasets.
Highlights
Operational forecasting of volcanic ash dispersal in the atmosphere is underpinned by near-real-time reports that provide a valuable untapped data resource
A majority of these Volcanic Ash Advisories (VAAs) were issued by the Darwin, Tokyo, Buenos Aires, and Washington Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (VAACs), detailing explosive volcanic activity across Indonesia, Japan, the Kamchatka Pensinsula, and Central America and South America
For VAACs such as London that responded to few events, peaks associated with individual eruptions (e.g. Eyjafjallajökull in 2010 and Grímsvötn in 2011) are clear
Summary
Operational forecasting of volcanic ash dispersal in the atmosphere is underpinned by near-real-time reports that provide a valuable untapped data resource. We use a novel dataset comprising Volcanic Ash Advisories (VAAs), issued over 10 years by the world’s nine Volcanic Ash Advisory. Centres (VAACs), to investigate global rates and durations of explosive volcanic activity and inform understanding of characteristics of this activity, with regard to cloud height. All acronyms used are defined in Appendix located at the end of the paper. Explosive volcanic eruption frequency trends have traditionally been analysed from deposits 2 U.S Geological Survey, Cascades Volcano Observatory, 1300 SE Cardinal Court Bldg. 2 U.S Geological Survey, Cascades Volcano Observatory, 1300 SE Cardinal Court Bldg. 10, Vancouver, WA, USA
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