Abstract
Abstract. The added value of global simulations on the convection-permitting (CP) scale is a subject of extensive research in the earth system science community. An increase in predictive skill can be expected due to advanced representations of feedbacks and teleconnections in the ocean–land–atmosphere system. However, the proof of this hypothesis by corresponding simulations is computationally and scientifically extremely demanding. We present a novel latitude-belt simulation from 57∘ S to 65∘ N using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Noah-MP model system with a grid increment of 0.03∘ over a period of 5 months forced by sea surface temperature observations. In comparison to a latitude-belt simulation with 45 km resolution, at CP resolution the representation of the spatial-temporal scales and the organization of tropical convection are improved considerably. The teleconnection pattern is very close to that of the operational European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) analyses. The CP simulation is associated with an improvement of the precipitation forecast over South America, Africa, and the Indian Ocean and considerably improves the representation of cloud coverage along the tropics. Our results demonstrate a significant added value of future simulations on the CP scale up to the seasonal forecast range.
Highlights
The answer to whether global simulations on the convectionpermitting (CP) scale are computational overkill or not will have substantial consequences for the future direction of earth system sciences and with respect to the realization and distribution of huge resources of supercomputers
The NCP simulation did not reproduce any of the eastward-propagating structures but only westward-propagating precipitating systems, which were almost not present in reality
Meridional boundaries are provided by the operational European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) analysis, and the lower boundary forcing is provided by combining ECMWF and OSTIA sea surface temperature (SST) data
Summary
The answer to whether global simulations on the convectionpermitting (CP) scale are computational overkill or not will have substantial consequences for the future direction of earth system sciences and with respect to the realization and distribution of huge resources of supercomputers. This requires the involvement of decision makers, funding organizations, and the public. Extensive research is ongoing concerning the added value of global extended-range simulations on the CP scale These simulations are considered for next-generation climate projections (Eyring et al, 2016), seasonal forecasting (Vitart, 2014), and numerical weather prediction (NWP).
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