Abstract
Next years will be very important for the development of the Polish energy system. Substantial part of the existing capacities are obsolete and need to be replaced or at least deeply modernised to fulfil expected emissions regulations. A hybrid of TIMES-PL and TIMES-MACRO energy-economic models was used to analyse the possible changes in the power generation mix and economic impact of different scenarios that combine the climate and air pollution regulations. The results show that to maintain the CO2 emission reduction trend a combination of measures is needed including the use of renewables, nuclear, natural gas and clean coal technologies. However, such transition in the energy sector will lead to a cumulative GDP loss in the near future once the possible GDP gains could happen after 2045 in which the economic, technical and legislative conditions are very difficult to foresee.
Highlights
Years will be very important for the development of the Polish energy system
The constantly stiffening regulations on air pollution laid down by the EU Directives and Best Available Techniques (BAT) reference documents put burden on coal fired power plants, which dominate in the power generation mix
TIMES-PL belongs to a family of bottom-up, partial equilibrium models developed with the use of IEA-ETSAP TIMES generator [7]
Summary
Years will be very important for the development of the Polish energy system. There are problems inherited from the past. The constantly stiffening regulations on air pollution laid down by the EU Directives and Best Available Techniques (BAT) reference documents put burden on coal fired power plants, which dominate in the power generation mix Another challenge is a reduction of GHG emissions in line with the Paris COP21 agreement and European Union declaration to decrease carbon dioxide emissions by 40% till 2030. Taking into account that investments in the energy sector are irreversible all these aspects need careful consideration and discussion, involving decision makers, energy companies, experts and academics, in order to make the best possible transition of the energy system in near future This discussion should be supported by the results of analytical tools, which are able to examine these diverse problems
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