Abstract
The paper presents the analysis of a sub-set of high-resolution bias-adjusted simulations from the EURO-CORDEX initiative, in order to examine the changes in the mean climate and the extremes in three Mediterranean islands, namely, Sicily, Crete and Cyprus, in the near future (2031–2060) compared to the present climate (1971–2000), under two future scenarios, i.e. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The analysis entails commonly used climatic indices of interest related to the islands’ agricultural sector. The results indicate robust increases for both the mean maximum and minimum temperatures on a seasonal basis, as well as for the temperature related extremes under both climate scenarios. On the contrary, the changes in precipitation are less pronounced as the changes in the seasonal precipitation are not found statistically significant for the three islands under both scenarios. The projected warming combined with the projected unchanged precipitation pattern in the future, especially in spring and summer, might expose the crops to conditions with a negative impact on the plants’ phenology, leading to implications on crop production and quality. The results presented here might be the basis for the development of an adaptation strategy specifically targeted on the three islands but also replicable to other Mediterranean islands.
Highlights
The Mediterranean area is considered one of the “Hot Spots for Climate Change”, meaning that the climate in the area is especially susceptible to climate change (Giorgi 2006).in the past years, it has been the target of a significant amount of studies examining the impacts of climate change with the major findings indicating that the future warming in the area will be higher than the global mean by 25% and 40% in the annual and the seasonal timescalesCommunicated by Wolfgang Cramer Page 2 of 15Reg Environ Change (2021) 21: 16(mostly summer), respectively (e.g. Lionello and Scarascia 2018)
We examine the change in the mean and extreme climate in the near future focusing over three Mediterranean islands, i.e. Sicily, Crete and Cyprus, using an ensemble of high-resolution, bias-adjusted regional climate model (RCM) simulations from EURO-CORDEX
The impact of climate change on both the mean climate and the extremes over the islands of Sicily, Crete and Cyprus using a sub-set of bias-adjusted EURO-CORDEX simulations for the 2031–2060 future period under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, namely, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, was examined
Summary
The Mediterranean area is considered one of the “Hot Spots for Climate Change”, meaning that the climate in the area is especially susceptible to climate change (Giorgi 2006). In the past 15 years, it has been the target of a significant amount of studies examining the impacts of climate change with the major findings indicating that the future warming in the area will be higher than the global mean by 25% and 40% in the annual and the seasonal timescales
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