Abstract
Vegetation Þ res are the second source of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. An important step to reduce the climate impact of these emissions is the investigation of the atmospheric susceptibility of a region for Þ re development (Þ re risk). This study aims to investigate the environmental susceptibility to Þ re development, based on Þ re risk model: the Haines Index (IH) and the Stezer (IS) index. The study was carried out with data from the ECHAM5/MPI-OM climate model and the NCEP reanalysis data, to calculate both indices during two periods: present day (1980-2000) and climate projections for the end of the 21st century (2080-2100). Based upon the results, we concluded that the Haines index could reproduced property the areas with the highest Þ re incidence under present conditions. Moreover, it has been found that below under greenhouse warming conditions there is an enlargement in the Þ re risk area, in particular for the Amazon region to the IS.
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