Abstract
What determines a team’s home advantage, and why does it change with time? Is it something about the rowdiness of the hometown crowd? Is it something about the location of the team? Or is it something about the team itself, the quality of the team or the styles it may or may not play? To answer these questions, season performance statistics were downloaded for all NBA teams across 32 seasons (83–84 to 17–18). Data were also obtained for other potential influences identified in the literature including: stadium attendance, altitude, and team market size. Using an artificial neural network, a team’s home advantage was diagnosed using team performance statistics only. Attendance, altitude, and market size were unsuccessful at improving this diagnosis. The style of play is a key factor in the home advantage. Teams that make more two point and free-throw shots see larger advantages at home. Given the rise in three-point shooting in recent years, this finding partially explains the gradual decline in home advantage observed across the league over time.
Highlights
Home advantage is unanimously accepted as a key factor to a team’s success in a game
Academics have observed it in most team sports. Some attribute this phenomenon to crowd noise [1,2,3,4], where rowdier crowds increase the advantage for the home team, possibly influencing referees in the process [1, 3]. Others attribute it to fatigue from away travels [5], familiarity with one’s own facilities [6], rest between games [7], referee bias [1, 8,9], and altitude [10]
We investigate whether team season performance statistics, such as total points scored, two and three-point shot attempts, field goal percentage etc., contribute to the home advantage and whether they explain the decline in the advantage with time
Summary
Home advantage is unanimously accepted as a key factor to a team’s success in a game. It’s openly discussed by coaches, players, and fans Academics have observed it in most team sports. Some attribute this phenomenon to crowd noise [1,2,3,4], where rowdier crowds increase the advantage for the home team, possibly influencing referees in the process [1, 3] Others attribute it to fatigue from away travels [5], familiarity with one’s own facilities [6], rest between games [7], referee bias [1, 8,9], and altitude [10].
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