Abstract
This paper investigates the stochastic on-time arrival (SOTA) problem in transportation networks. We propose a fourth moment approach (FMA), which calculates the tight lower bound of a given routing policy’s on-time-arrival probability, through estimating the first four moments of the policy’s travel time. Then, we employ the generalized policy iteration (GPI) scheme to gradually improve the policy towards the optimal one. Different from state-of-the-art algorithms for the SOTA problem, which require the full travel time distribution and usually incur high computational cost due to the convolution integration operation, FMA only requires the moments of travel-time statistics, which are easily estimated from the statistics perspective. Moreover, the algorithm’s computational complexity analysis indicates the relatively light computational load requirement of FMA. Experimental results in a range of transportation networks show FMA’s superior performance over state of the arts.
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