Navigating Uncertainty: an Interval Method to Uncover Export Dynamics – Insights from the Republic of Armenia

Abstract

Purpose: This article introduces an innovative interval method to evaluate Armenia's export dynamics in uncertain economic contexts. Theoretical Framework: Focusing on export forecasts and interval forecasts, this research addresses the dynamic nature of economic processes, enhancing accuracy in assessing economic indicators during uncertainty. Methodology: We apply the interval approach to assess Armenia's exports, particularly in the EAEU market versus the global market. We analyze the effectiveness of export-oriented scenarios amid uncertainty. Findings: Our analysis shows that the EAEU market offers more favorable export growth compared to the global market during uncertainty. The interval method significantly improves forecast accuracy. We emphasize the importance of prioritizing trade relations with specific countries and the economic significance of finished product exports. Research, Practical & Social Implications: This research provides insights into Armenia's export-oriented growth prospects and offers a practical guide for policymakers. It underscores the significance of modernization, collaboration, and economic competitiveness, particularly in smaller economies. Originality/Value: This article introduces the interval method for export dynamics in Armenia. It adds value by advocating targeted trade strategies and emphasizing economic policy focused on finished product exports during uncertain times.