Nature-based Restoration Planning using Spatial-Temporal Simulation Modeling

Abstract

Natural hazards such as typhoons and earthquakes caused by climate change cause enormous damage to the social-ecological system and result in the degradation of ecosystem services. This has suggested the necessity of considering the concept of resilience along with the limitations of existing methods in disaster management and has been linked to restoration plans connected to nature-based solutions. The Republic of Korea suffers from natural disasters caused by typhoons and torrential rains every summer and the damage is worsened because of insufficient spatial management and the failure to predict disasters. Therefore, to cope with these damages and maintain ecosystem services, a nature-based restoration plan should be presented using the concept of resilience. In the process, it is necessary to understand the changes that have happened in ecosystem services over time and plan a space that can respond to natural disasters. The purpose of this study is to simulate changes in ecosystem services for natural disaster damage through spatial-temporal models and present the improvement effects of ecosystem services through nature-based restoration scenarios. Accordingly, we first searched for areas to which the resilient ecosystem service restoration planning could be applied within Pohang, which suffered significant flood damage throughout 2022. Then, a spatial-temporal model of the target area was constructed to simulate changes in the ecosystem services due to floods. Finally, the ecosystem service improvement effect of the spatial-temporal simulation model was analyzed by constructing and applying a nature-based restoration scenario. Based on the results of this study, a nature-based restoration plan was conceived of as a method to improve ecosystem services for the long term by simulating changes in the target area affected by natural disasters in terms of time and space. In addition, by presenting the preceding process as a nature-based restoration plan, it is possible to maintain resilience to the damage caused by natural disasters in terms of the social-ecological system.This research was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF) funded by the Ministry of Education(NRF-2021R1A6A3A01087973). This research was also supported by OJEong Resilience Institute (OJERI).