Nature reserve selection in the Transvaal, South Africa: what data should we be using?

Abstract

Iterative reserve selection algorithms were applied to two mammal databases, generalized to sixteenth degree grid squares, for the Transvaal region of South Africa. Based on primary point data, 24 grid squares are required to represent all species at least once, while only 13 grid squares are required when based on distribution map data; only two of these grid squares are common to both analyses. As the number of representations per species is increased from one to five, the number of selected grid squares increased to 86 and 71 or 72 respectively, with only 17 of these common to both analyses. These differences in the selection of sites are further reflected in the degree of congruence between selected grid squares and existing conservation areas which is on average 63.3% for grid squares selected from the primary database and only 42.5% for those selected from the distribution map database. These results emphasize the importance of quality data input when evaluating regional reserve networks. Highly generalized distribution map data sets, on the one hand, are extrapolations of limited data sets and contain non-quantifiable levels of false-positives which could have significant implications if used for establishing regional reserve networks. On the other hand, although there are problems associated with the establishment of primary diversity databases, namely data currency and uneven and non-random sampling (leading to false negatives), they remain our most reliable option for assigning conservation value.