Natural selection on floral volatiles and other traits can change with snowmelt timing and summer precipitation.

Abstract

Climate change is disrupting floral traits that mediate mutualistic and antagonistic species interactions. Plastic responses of these traits to multiple shifting conditions may be adaptive, depending on natural selection in new environments. We manipulated snowmelt date over three seasons (3-11 d earlier) in factorial combination with growing-season precipitation (normal, halved, or doubled) to measure plastic responses of volatile emissions and other floral traits in Ipomopsis aggregata. We quantified how precipitation and early snowmelt affected selection on traits by seed predators and pollinators. Within years, floral emissions did not respond to precipitation treatments but shifted with snowmelt treatment depending on the year. Across 3 yr, emissions correlated with both precipitation and snowmelt date. These effects were driven by changes in soil moisture. Selection on several traits changed with earlier snowmelt or reduced precipitation, in some cases driven by predispersal seed predation. Floral trait plasticity was not generally adaptive. Floral volatile emissions shifted in the face of two effects of climate change, and the new environments modulated selection imposed by interacting species. The complexity of the responses underscores the need for more studies of how climate change will affect floral volatiles and other floral traits.