Natural resource curse in oil exporting countries: A nonlinear approach

Abstract

This paper aims at extending the concept of conditional natural resource curse and examining the quantity as well as the quality of public spending as the main drivers of the oil curse in oil exporting countries. Using nonlinear threshold models, there is evidence in favor of non-linear relationship between oil incomes and economic performances. We show that highly oil dependent countries are more likely to experience inefficiencies in government decision and, by extension, oil revenues misallocation leading to underdevelopment. Relying on human capital as the mirror of the quantity as well as the quality of government spending in education, we find a similar pattern. The alteration in government efficiency is the main mechanism through which oil incomes lead to poor economic performances. Indeed, the direct contribution of oil incomes to total output is rather positive, even if the magnitude of this effect is likely to decrease with the relative level of oil dependence. The estimates indicate that the non-linear model is the better for explaining economic growth divergences across oil exporting countries as well as for reconciling the conflicting results from the empirical literature of the oil curse.