NATURAL REPRODUCTION OF THE POPULATION SIBERIAN FEDERAL DISTRICT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SECOND WAVE OF DEPOPULATION (PECULIARITIES AND PREDICTION)

Abstract

Since 2017, a new stage of depopulation has begun in Russia related to a reduction in the birth rate. The consequences of the “demographic gap” of the 1990s have reached the present time and there has been a sharp decrease in the number of women of active reproductive age, especially from 25 to 29 years old. Objective. The aim is the analysis of the dynamics and prediction of natural reproduction of the population in the Siberian Federal District and its individual administrative territories at the beginning of the second wave of depopulation. Material and methods. Data on the birth rate, mortality and natural increase (decrease) per 1000 population of the Russian Federation, the Siberian Federal District and of individual territories of the Siberian Federal District are obtained on the website of the Federal Service of State Statistics. To analyze the dynamics of natural reproduction of the population of the Siberian Federal District for 2000-2018 and for a short-term prediction of indices, the capabilities of the Microsoft Office application (MS Excel) were used and several variants of approximation of birth rate, mortality rate and natural increase (decrease) in the population were considered using the following trends: linear, logarithmic, and degree (third degree polynomial). Results. A short-term prediction based on the trends indicates a continuation of the emerging trend: the birth rate in the Siberian Federal District will decrease, and the natural decline in the population will increase. With this approximation, the mortality rate of the population will increase. Conclusion. In the coming years, the containment of depopulation in the Siberian Federal District is possible due to the favorable ratio of birth rate and mortality rate in the Republics of Tyva, Altai, Buryatia, and Khakassia. Of particular concern is the significant natural decline in the population in the Kemerovo Region and the Altai Territory. The problem of reducing mortality and, accordingly, increasing life expectancy can be solved only with an increase in the level of culture, education, medical care and with a wide spread of healthy lifestyles.