Natural progression of persistent pure ground-glass nodules 10mm or smaller: long-term observation and risk factor assessment.

Abstract

Semi-automatic segmentation was used to investigate the natural progression of pure ground-glass nodules (pGGNs) of 5-10mm in long-term follow-up and to analyze independent risk factors for subsequent growth. A total of 154 pGGNs of 5-10mm from 132 patients with 698 follow-up CT scans were retrospectively identified. Subsequently, enrolled pGGNs were semiautomatically segmented on initial and follow-up CT to obtain diameter, density and volume, thus calculating mass, volume doubling time (VDT), and mass doubling time (MDT). Kaplan‒Meier analysis and multivariate Cox proportional risk regression were performed to explore independent predictors of pGGN growth. We analyzed growth differences among different pathological results of pGGNs confirmed by surgery. The prognosis was analyzed using the total diameter or solid size of the nodules on the last preoperative CT. Among the 85 (55.2%) pGGNs with growth, 5.9%, 51.8%, and 80.0% showed growth within 1, 3, and 5years, respectively. The median VDT and MDT were 1206.4 (range 349.8-5134.4) days and 1161.3 (range 339.4-6630.4) days, respectively. The multivariate Cox risk regression analysis showed that mean CT attenuation (m-CTA) [hazard ratio (HR) = 2.098, p = 0.010] and roundness index (HR = 1.892, p = 0.021) were independent risk factors for pGGN growth. In total, 67.6% of surgically resected and growing pGGNs were invasive non-mucinous adenocarcinoma (IA), including 2 cases of endpoint events, showing a PSN with solid components of 5.6mm and a solid nodule with a diameter of 19.9mm. pGGNs of 5-10mm showed an indolent clinical course. Follow-up CT imaging of pGGNs in the latter half of the first two years should be a rational management strategy. Small pGGNs with a larger overall m-CTA and roundness index on baseline CT are more likely to grow.