Natural Population Change in Russian Regions: Factors, Dynamics, Prospects

Abstract

The article examines the dynamics of natural population change and its components (fertility, mortality, age structure) in the regions of Russia. The goal of the scientific work is to identify general patterns and individual characteristics of natural population change and its components in the regions of the Russian Federation. The information base for the study is data from the Federal State Statistics Service for the regions of Russia. The work uses methods of comparative and typological analysis, factor analysis, graphic and cartographic methods, and the zoning method. Based on statistical data, graphical and cartographic models have been constructed, which helped to divide natural population growth into its constituent components and establish a connection between them. The authors identify types of territories depending on demographic dynamics and formulate recommendations for improving the demographic situation for each of them. The study showed that many regions of the Urals, Siberia, the Far East, and the coastal south of Russia have a high fertility potential even with an elderly age structure of the population. At the same time, most regions located near the largest urban agglomerations are characterized by the worst birth rate in the country, which indicates the need for spatial deconcentration. The conclusion states that the implementation of a sovereign demographic policy, which includes economic and housing components, as well as the popularization of the image of a large family in society, is highly relevant.