Natural interdecadal weakening of East Asian summer monsoon in the late 20th century

Abstract

Based on the reanalysis data throughout 1948–2002 ] as derived from the United States National Centers for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research, it is revealed that East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) intensity weakens on an interdecadal timescale since the mid-1960s, and twice interdecadal jumps are recorded in the EASM intensity index series in the late 20th century, respectively occurring in the mid-1960s and midto late 1970s. Six globally coupled atmosphere-ocean models’ outputs under the SRES A2 greenhouse gas and aerosol emission scenario, provided by the IPCC Data Distribution Center and the Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research, are then systematically examined. It follows that the above EASM weakening is not closely related to synchronizing anthropogenic global warming, and, therefore, it should be qualitatively natural change process. Over the 21st century, the EASM intensity is likely increased slightly by continually intensified greenhouse effect relative to the late 20th century.