Natural history of subclinical hypothyroidism and prognostic factors for the development of overt hypothyroidism: Tehran Thyroid Study (TTS).

Abstract

The significance of subclinical hypothyroidism (SCH) is largely due to its potential risk for developing overt hypothyroidism (OH). Investigations are still exploring predictive factors contributing to the progression of SCH to OH, particularly in patients with mildly elevated serum thyrotropin (TSH). We aimed to clarify the natural history of SCH and the predictive factors of its progression, based on the grade of SCH severity. This study was conducted within the framework of the Tehran Thyroid Study (TTS), in which 5783 individuals aged ≥ 20years were followed. After applying exclusion criteria, data of 270 SCH subjects remained for the analysis. Thyroid function tests were assessed at baseline and every 3years. Of 270 participants with SCH, 239 (88.5%) had TSH level between 5.06 and 10mU/L, and 31 (11.4%) had TSH ≥ 10mU/L. During a median follow-up of 10years, 40% had TSH within the reference range, 44% maintained elevated TSH, and 16% had added low T4 to the elevated TSH. The annual incidence rate of progression to OH was 22.3 (16.5-101.9) per 1000 person-years [18 (12.6-25.6) for those with TSH 5.07-9.9mU/L and 57.8 (22.8-101.9) for patients with TSH ≥ 10mU/L per 1000 person-years (P = 0.001)]. After adjusting age, sex, body mass index (BMI), thyroid peroxidase antibody (TPOAb), and serum TSH, only TPOAb positivity (HR: 2.31; 95% CI 1.10-4.83, P = 0.026) and baseline TSH level ≥ 10mU/L (HR: 5.14; 95% CI 2.14-12.3, P < 0.001) remained as predictors for development of OH. In patients with TSH 5.07-9.9mU/L, TPOAb positivity was associated with an increased risk of OH (HR: 2.41; 95% CI 1.10-5.30, P = 0.027). However, in patients with TSH ≥ 10mU/L, TPOAb positivity was not a predictor (P = 0.49). TPOAb and not TSH are associated with the development of OH in individuals with serum TSH below 10mU/L, and follow-up at regular intervals is recommended in TPOAb-positive individuals with TSH between 5 and 10mU/L.