Abstract
ABSTRACTThe paper presents an integrated framework which deals with natural hazards (tsunamis), physical vulnerability modelling, risk of failure for industrial structures (metal structures) and structural resilience provided by plastic adaptation. Simplified models are proposed to describe the run-up and wave height attenuation in case of tsunamis. The results are calibrated in the case of important tsunamis having taken place in Asian region. The mechanical vulnerability of cylindrical metal tanks erected near the shoreline is also investigated. The fragility curves are then developed in order to describe the multimodal failure: overturning, rupture of anchorages and sliding, buoyancy, excessive bending effects or buckling. Corresponding fragility curves are developed under various conditions: height of tsunami waves, filling ratios and service conditions of the tanks, friction tank/ground as well as dimensions effects. Probabilistic description of the natural hazard and the fragility curves are presented. Sensitivity analysis is also performed in order to investigate the effect of various governing parameters. Furthermore, resilience concepts and metrics are proposed. Theoretical description of the damages and post-disaster recovery functions are discussed: plastic adaptation as well as elastic and plastic attractors.
Highlights
Resilience is becoming a powerful and integrated concept able to deal with the case of individual structures as well as sets of structures at large scales such as industrial plants, urban or regional infrastructures
The potential hazards, the vulnerability and fragility functions of the system, for each intensity of the hazard, the conditional damages and losses caused to the utility functions, conditional to each hazard intensity, the system ‘survival’ after the disaster is triggered and the recovery functions according to the available resources and the adequate management or by change of use and threshold value for resilient systems (FR,opt), during a reference period for recovery (Tref)
Metrics for resilience are proposed in the case of coastal industrial plants and the tanks vulnerability analysis is investigated under tsunamis effects
Summary
Resilience is becoming a powerful and integrated concept able to deal with the case of individual structures as well as sets of structures at large scales such as industrial plants, urban or regional infrastructures It is well adapted for quantitative description of the system post-disaster behaviour or capacity. It is of crucial importance to develop adequate functions and metrics able to define, see figure 1: The utility functions of a system at each instant time t, i.e. FR(.) which expresses the mechanical capacity or socio-economic aspects and its threshold value FR,min for ‘survival’ and possible upper bound value FR,max, the potential hazards (natural or industrial), the vulnerability and fragility functions of the system, for each intensity of the hazard, the conditional damages and losses caused to the utility functions, conditional to each hazard intensity, the system ‘survival’ after the disaster is triggered (at td,i and lasting until td,f) and the recovery functions according to the available resources (intern resources due to adaptation between the system components, or extern resources by flow exchanges) and the adequate management or by change of use (and subsequent utility functions) and threshold value for resilient systems (FR,opt), during a reference period for recovery (Tref). Sensitivity analysis and discussion about metrics for resilience are proposed
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