Natural hazards, internal migration and protests in Bangladesh

Kristina Petrova

doi:10.1177/0022343320973741

Abstract

Does internal migration following natural hazards increase the likelihood of protests in migrant-receiving areas? To address the question, this study first looks at the extent to which experiencing different forms of natural hazards contributes to a household’s decision to leave their district of residence. In a second step, the article explores whether that internal migration flow increases the number of protest events in migrant-hosting districts. In doing so, it contributes to the existing debate on the extent to which natural hazards impact the likelihood of social contention, and the role of migration as a linking pathway in that relationship. The impact of climate-related shocks may erode household assets and therefore adaptive capacity in ways that can eventually influence decisions to migrate to larger urban centres. Although migrants are agents of economical and technological change, urban environments may impose challenges to recently arrived migrants and their host communities, affecting the motivations and mobilization resources of urban social groups to protest. As a consequence, the probability of urban unrest in these locations is expected to increase. To test this, I use geo-referenced household-level data from Bangladesh for the period 2010–15, which records households’ experiences of different forms of natural hazard and internal migration flows, available from the Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey. It combines this with data on protests, derived from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data. Findings suggest that flood hazards in combination with loss of assets increase the likelihood of internal migration, but unlike other types of domestic mobility, hazard-related migration does not increase the frequency of protests in migrants’ districts of destination.

Highlights

Millions of people will be exposed to the impacts of anthropogenic climate change, with projected increased duration, frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events (IPCC, 2018)
The statistical analysis is conducted in two parts: first, I rely on micro-level data from the Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey, to examine the extent to which experiencing different forms of natural hazards such as floods and droughts contributes to a household’s decision to leave their district of residence
When separating natural hazard-related migration from the rest of the inflow, estimated results suggest that environmental migration does not affect the likelihood of protests, neither in itself nor as an addition to the remaining ongoing internal migration

Summary

Introduction

Millions of people will be exposed to the impacts of anthropogenic climate change, with projected increased duration, frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events (IPCC, 2018). Focusing on the issue from a human security perspective, this study asks whether natural hazards play a role in people’s decisions to internally migrate, and whether that is associated with increased protest frequency in migrant-hosting areas. Qualitative case studies of the societal impact of climate variability continuously highlight the occurrence of land disputes, riots and nonviolent protests as a more likely outcome than severe forms of armed conflict. This subcategory of conflict does not necessarily require the same level of organization and funding, entails lower personal risk, and in case of discontent could be more likely to occur in the aftermath of a natural hazard (Buhaug & Seter, 2014). When separating natural hazard-related migration from the rest of the inflow, estimated results suggest that environmental migration does not affect the likelihood of protests, neither in itself nor as an addition to the remaining ongoing internal migration

Literature review

Findings

Discussion and conclusion