Abstract
This paper analyzes the role of natural geography for explaining local population change patterns. Using spatially detailed data for Spain from 1960 to 2011, the estimation results indicated that natural geography variables relate to about half of the population growth variation of rural areas and more than a third of the population growth variation of urban areas during this period. Local differences in climate, topography, and soil and rock formation as well as distance to aquifers and the coast contribute to variations in local population growth patterns. Although, over time, local population change became less related to differences in natural geography, natural geography is still significantly related to nearly a third of the variation in local population change in rural areas and the contribution of temperature range and precipitation seasonality has even increased. For urban areas, weather continues to matter too, with growth being higher in warmer places.
Highlights
Since the second half of the 20th century, the spatial distribution of population in Spain has undergone significant changes
The results in this study show that local population growth patterns have become more sensitive to certain climate variables
This paper provides an analysis of long-term population change at the spatially disaggregated level and focuses on the relationship with natural geography
Summary
Since the second half of the 20th century, the spatial distribution of population in Spain has undergone significant changes. Total population increased from about 30 million to more than 46 million. Not all places have gained population at the same pace. During this period, the percentage of urban population has increased from about 55% to nearly 80%. By contrast, during the last twenty years, the urban population increased mainly due to immigration. Apart from urban–rural differences in population growth patterns, there has been important heterogeneity within the group of rural and urban locations. The aim of this paper is to analyze the patterns of local population change. Unbalanced local population growth has important economic, social, and environmental implications and raises issues for sustainable development Why have some places grown more than others and how much can natural geography explain? Unbalanced local population growth has important economic, social, and environmental implications and raises issues for sustainable development
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