Natural gas supply-demand situation and prospect in China

Abstract

Since the 21st century, the reserves of conventional natural gas as well as tight gas in China have been decreasing and their annual production growth rates have been generally reduced from double-digit to one-digit number of percentage. It is predicted that natural gas production will possibly reach up to 134 billion m3 in 2015; and if the marketable rate is 90%, the gas supply volume will probably be 120.6 billion m3 in 2015. Since shale gas development just has started currently, about 0.6 billion m3 of the marketable shale gas will be added to gas supply in 2015. The CBM gas production especially such gas consumption has long been lagged behind the expected targets, and what's more, flaws exist in their statistics; on this basis, it is assumed that the marketable CBM gas will be 4 billion Nm 3 in 2015. With so many achievements made in the coal gas exploitation, it is forecasted that about 5.5 billion m3 coal gas will be added to gas supply in 2015. In total, the domestic fuel gas supply is roughly estimated to be 131 billion m3 in 2015; if the gas consumption in the year is presumably 231 billion m3, about 100 billion m3 gas will then be imported in 2015. From the presumable actual imports of piped gas and LNG terminals, there is still a gap of 27–30 billion m3 in 2015. Therefore, it is suggested that more LNG receiving terminals be put into production in advance and the increment of import gas be needed from Middle Asia. Also, it is proposed that the statistics be completed on the practical marketable fuel gas quantity in the fundamental study of energy planning in the National 13th Five-Year Plan. In conclusion, the economic system reform process is the key to the further development of oil and gas industry in China.