Abstract
Natural gas scarcity poses a significant risk to the global economy. The risk of production loss due to natural gas scarcity can be transferred to downstream economies through globalized supply chains. Therefore, it is important to quantify and analyze how natural gas scarcity in some regions affects the Belt and Road (B&R) economies. The embodied natural gas scarcity risks (EGSRs) of B&R economies are assessed and the EGSR transmission network is constructed. The built network shows a small-world nature. This illustrates that any interruption in key countries will quickly spread to neighboring countries, potentially affecting the global economy. The top countries, including Turkey, China, Ukraine, and India are identified in EGSR exports, which also have relatively high values of closeness centrality. The findings illustrate that the shortage of natural gas supply in these countries may have a significant impact on downstream countries or sectors and the resulting economic losses spread rapidly. These countries are critical to the resilience of the B&R economies to natural gas scarcity. The top nations, including Turkmenistan, Macedonia, and Georgia are also identified in EGSR imports, highlighting their vulnerability to natural gas scarcity. Further, the community analysis of the network provides a fresh perspective for formulating fair and reasonable allocation policies of natural gas resources and minimizing the large-scale spread of economic losses caused by natural gas scarcity.
Highlights
Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutralIn the past 20 years, a series of phenomena such as global warming, melting glaciers, rising sea levels, and haze weather have shown that climate change is seriously affecting the future survival of mankind
multi-regional input-output (MRIO) analysis facilitates the tracking of energy resources or environmental impacts of economic activities to their origin or to where they are utilized through a complex inter-regional supply chain [38]
The initial natural gas scarcity risk (IGSR) of different countries was estimated by combining the natural gas stress index, natural gas intensity, and economic output
Summary
Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutralIn the past 20 years, a series of phenomena such as global warming, melting glaciers, rising sea levels, and haze weather have shown that climate change is seriously affecting the future survival of mankind. With the increasing attention of countries around the world to climate change, more than 130 countries have pledged to achieve net-zero emissions [1]. As the most environmentally friendly energy among fossil energy resources, natural gas can be used as a raw material in the chemical industry, as a fuel in the industrial field, in the field of power generation, and in the domestic gas consumption of residents, etc. It is becoming an important force in promoting the global energy transformation
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