Abstract
The rapid development of the Belt and Road economics has generated a considerable energy demand. Under the general trend of the global energy transition, natural gas resources are becoming the main driving force. The limited natural gas resources are posing a significant risk to economies, and this risk may also be transferred to other distant regions through economic trade. The aim of this study is to explore the trans-regional (sectoral) transmission pattern of natural gas scarcity risk. The main contribution of this paper is the assessment of the local natural gas scarcity risk (LGSR) and cross-region transfer relationship of embodied natural gas scarcity risk (EGSR), which are evaluated for the BRI economies. In addition, the network amplification effect is considered when evaluating the cross-regional impact of natural gas scarcity risk. The results show that, at the national level, Turkey, Ukraine, and Bulgaria have significant EGSR related to exports activities. The natural gas scarcity risks (GSRs) originating from these countries are mainly transferred to Turkmenistan, Georgia, and Albania, with large EGSR imports. Moreover, by comparing the ranking changes of EGSR imports, EGSR exports, and LGSRs at the national and sectoral levels, countries or sectors with higher LGSRs also have higher EGSR exports. The Top EGSR import and export network consisting of top EGSR flow relationships can well reflect countries’ preferences in choosing EGSR transfer partners. The results suggest that upstream countries and sectors should strengthen cooperation to manage natural gas resources, and provide references for decision makers in highly vulnerable downstream countries and sectors to formulate strategies to avoid the large-scale spread of economic losses caused by natural gas scarcity.
Highlights
The world’s energy development is entering a new historical phase, and the demand for clean and low-carbon energy is inevitable [1]
This work can provide a meaningful reference for governments, enterprises, and decision makers in vulnerable countries and sectors, enabling them to understand better the embodied natural gas scarcity risk (EGSR) they may face, helping them develop strategies to mitigate such risks
This is reflected in the disparities between local natural gas scarcity risk (LGSR) and EGSRs in some countries
Summary
The world’s energy development is entering a new historical phase, and the demand for clean and low-carbon energy is inevitable [1]. By the end of 2019, the proven reserves of natural gas in the countries along the Belt and Road were approximately 159.6 trillion cubic meters, accounting for 80.3% of the global total. The production of natural gas in these countries is approximately 1.98 trillion cubic meters, accounting for 53.7% of the global total [3]. About a quarter of the natural gas in EU countries is imported from Russia, and about 80% of it is delivered through Ukraine. During the mid-winter, all natural gas supplies from Russia to Ukraine were interrupted for three weeks, which had a serious impact on the economies of Central and Eastern Europe [6]. While an immediate issue is the security of supply in those countries where natural gas is in short supply, it is important to map their impact on the overall economic system
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