Natural gas pipeline network expansion under load-evolution uncertainty based on multi-criteria analysis

Abstract

This paper proposes a new approach to the design of natural gas network expansion under load evolution uncertainty in a time horizon. A predefined network topology is assumed with pipe diameters as the design variables. A dedicated optimization tool is developed so as to find not only an estimate of the optimal network, but also a set of local optimal ones, for a given most probable scenario. A Monte-Carlo simulation of the future load conditions is performed, evaluating each solution within a set of other possible scenarios. A dominance analysis is performed to compare the candidate solutions, considering the objectives of smaller installation cost, smaller infeasibility rate, smaller mean fault-cost and smaller sensitivity. A real case study is conducted concerning the design of a gas network by three engineers with 6 years of experience, on average, in the design office of a gas utility company; and their results are compared against the ones obtained from the proposed methodology. The results show that the proposed approach leads to networks that can be rather different from those obtained using a conventional, time consuming, design procedure, reaching more robust performances under load evolution uncertainties.