NATURAL DISTRIBUTION OF Myracrodruon urundeuva FR. ALL. IN BRAZIL AT CURRENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE SCENARIOS DUE TO GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

Lorena Frigini Moro Capo,Renan Marcelo Portela,Daniele Fernanda Zulian,Mario Luiz Teixeira De Moraes,Ananda Virginia De Aguiar,Márcia Toffani Simão Soares,Valderês Aparecida De Sousa,Alexandre Marques Da Silva,José Cambuim,Marcos Silveira Wrege

doi:10.1590/1806-908820220000009

Lorena Frigini Moro Capo, Renan Marcelo Portela + Show 8 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1590/1806-908820220000009

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Abstract

ABSTRACT In this work, the prediction of the distribution of M. urundeuva Fr. All. was performed based on the region of natural occurrence of the species. Its geographic coordinates were obtained from online databases CRIA and SpecialLinks, from scientific articles and fieldwork carried out by Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) in Ilha Solteira, São Paulo, Brazil. M. urundeuva is a native tree species with great potential for commercial use in Brazil. For this purpose, ecological niche modeling was used, with current layers of climate variables and layers prepared for future climate scenarios, according to the 4th Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (AR4/IPCC), using Worldclim data on Brazil. With the Open Modeller and ArcGIS programs, maps were generated to predict its occurrence for the current period and future climate scenarios, made according to the projections of global climate changes. With the projection of increases in temperature and precipitation in the area where the species occurs, it tends to migrate to areas of Brazil where the climate is currently milder, in the south and southeast regions. Due to climatic changes, the species tends to undergo changes in distribution and area size until 2080. It was projected for Caatinga and Pantanal, in both periods, an increase in area, while for the Cerrado, in the first period, the area increased, and, for the second, it decreased. Therefore, according to the results of the maps of future projections for the next decades, it is concluded that there will be changes in the distribution of M. urundeuva, with a significant reduction of the potential area of occurrence in the region.

Highlights

Its geographic coordinates were obtained from online databases CRIA and SpecialLinks, from scientific articles and fieldwork carried out by Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) in Ilha Solteira, São Paulo, Brazil
With the projection of increases in temperature and precipitation in the area where the species occurs, it tends to migrate to areas of Brazil where the climate is currently milder, in the south and southeast regions
There are uncertainties regarding the results obtained by climate models in relation to the behavior of the hydrological cycle in relation to future scenarios in the region (AR4/IPCC) (Marengo and Valverde, 2007), there are significant microclimatic changes in the conversion of forested areas to pasture in this biome, with potential changes in the regime of rainfall, temperature, and energy balance (Biudes et al, 2012)

Summary

Introduction

M. urundeuva has a wide natural distribution area compared to most native forest species. It can be found in Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, and Paraguay. Its extensive geographic distribution indicates high genetic diversity facilitating its adaptation in different phytoecological regions (Kageyama et al, 2003) as the Seasonal Forest, both Semi-deciduous and Decidual, Cerrado, Caatinga and Pantanal (Carvalho, 1994). In this way, the species presents a characteristic that favors studies related to genetic conservation and climatic changes. A priori, the projections of scenarios related to the distribution of the species need to be performed to identify the ecosystems that will require priority for conservation and studies

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