Abstract
This paper models and estimates the occurrence of natural disaster in Nigeria using the residual-based test for cointegration within an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework and error correction specification between the period 1970 and 2016, the results from the estimated static model shows that DLOG(TEM), LOG(GDPC) and LOG(URB) are long-run determinants of natural disasters in Nigeria. The short run error correction model results revealed that the coefficients of DLOG(CO2), DLOG(WIS), LOG(GDPC), LOG(URB), DLOG(GDPC(-2)) and LOG(URB(-1))seem to be significant and helpful in explaining the occurrence of natural disaster (NAD)in Nigeria. The error correction term shows that speed of adjustment of disequilibrium in natural disaster (NAD) in the previous year which is corrected in the current year is about 44.3 percent. Therefore, Nigerian government should among other recommendations embark on reducing urbanization growth by making sure that industries which forge linkages with rural occupations should be promoted to mitigate a high rural-urban migration. Establishing of very effective early warning systems for meteorological, geophysical, biological, social and industrial hazards should be ensured.
Highlights
Economic growth, reflected in increases in national output per capita, makes possible an improved material standard of living
The escalation of severe disaster event striggered by natural hazards and related technological and environmental disasters is increasingly threatening both sustainable development and poverty-reduction initiatives
The loss of human lives and the rise in the cost of reconstruction efforts and loss of development assets has forced the issue of disaster reduction and risk management higher on the policy agenda of affected governments as well as multilateral and bilateral agencies and NGOs (ISDR, 2003)
Summary
Economic growth, reflected in increases in national output per capita, makes possible an improved material standard of living. The loss of human lives and the rise in the cost of reconstruction efforts and loss of development assets has forced the issue of disaster reduction and risk management higher on the policy agenda of affected governments as well as multilateral and bilateral agencies and NGOs (ISDR, 2003). This trend led to the adoption of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) by governments to succeed and promote implementation of the recommendations www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aijssr
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