Natural disasters and infectious disease in Europe: a literature review to identify cascading risk pathways.

Jonathan E Suk,Eleanor C Vaughan,Jan C Semenza,Robert G Cook

doi:10.1093/eurpub/ckz111

Abstract

BackgroundNatural disasters are increasing in their frequency and complexity. Understanding how their cascading effects can lead to infectious disease outbreaks is important for developing cross-sectoral preparedness strategies. The review focussed on earthquakes and floods because of their importance in Europe and their potential to elucidate the pathways through which natural disasters can lead to infectious disease outbreaks.MethodsA systematic literature review complemented by a call for evidence was conducted to identify earthquake or flooding events in Europe associated with potential infectious disease events.ResultsThis review included 17 peer-reviewed papers that reported on suspected and confirmed infectious disease outbreaks following earthquakes (4 reports) or flooding (13 reports) in Europe. The majority of reports related to food- and water-borne disease. Eleven studies described the cascading effect of post-disaster outbreaks. The most reported driver of disease outbreaks was heavy rainfall, which led to cross-connections between water and other environmental systems, leading to the contamination of rivers, lakes, springs and water supplies. Exposure to contaminated surface water or floodwater following flooding, exposure to animal excreta and post-disaster living conditions were among other reported drivers of outbreaks.ConclusionsThe cascade effects of natural disasters, such as earthquakes and floods, include outbreaks of infectious disease. The projection that climate change-related extreme weather events will increase in Europe in the coming century highlights the importance of strengthening preparedness planning and measures to mitigate and control outbreaks in post-disaster settings.

Highlights

Natural disasters displace populations, damage infrastructure, hinder economic growth and activity, cause death and injury, and increase the risk of infectious disease outbreaks
The nature and effects of these disasters are becoming increasingly complex, due to factors such as climate change, population movement, economic interconnectivity and globalization. These interdependencies contribute to the ‘cascade effect’ of natural disasters, which is emerging as a priority area for research and for cross-sectoral and cross-border preparedness.[3,4]
Natural disasters: This review focussed on earthquakes and floods because of their importance in Europe and their potential to elucidate the pathways through which natural disasters can lead to infectious disease outbreaks

Summary

Introduction

Damage infrastructure, hinder economic growth and activity, cause death and injury, and increase the risk of infectious disease outbreaks. In 2018, natural disasters affected 61.7 million people, caused 10 373 deaths and several billion US dollars in damages.[1] The long-term trend in total mortality attributed to natural disasters appears to be decreasing,[1] but there are myriad technical and political challenges in reporting verifiable data from such events.[2] the nature and effects of these disasters are becoming increasingly complex, due to factors such as climate change, population movement, economic interconnectivity and globalization These interdependencies contribute to the ‘cascade effect’ of natural disasters, which is emerging as a priority area for research and for cross-sectoral and cross-border preparedness.[3,4] The cascade effect has been defined as ‘the dynamics present in disasters, in which the impact of a physical event . The projection that climate change-related extreme weather events will increase in Europe in the coming century highlights the importance of strengthening preparedness planning and measures to mitigate and control outbreaks in post-disaster settings

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Conclusion