Natural disaster risk assessment in tourist areas based on multi scenario analysis

Abstract

From the practice of tourism industry, many scenic spots emphasize emergency rescue and ignore risk prevention in safety management.From the perspective of research, a large number of literatures focus on the emergency management of scenic spots, and lack the concept and method of systematic risk management. This research puts forward the natural disaster risk assessment method in tourist area by the introduction and development of the concept of scenario analysis technique.This method relies on GIS(Geographic Information System) and RS(Remote Sensing) technology to simulate typical natural disaster risk scenarios in the scenic area in the future, and establish the corresponding relationship between the intensity of typical hazards and disaster risk scenarios. Further, it classifies tourism resources and tourist facilities, analyze the characteristics of the time and space distribution of tourists and residents in the scenic area, and establish the corresponding relationship between the intensity of hazard factors and the vulnerability of the scenic area’s bearer; finally, by fitting the risk curve, establish a comprehensive disaster loss model for the scenic area and predict the amount Scenario average annual loss.Taking the Jiuzhaigou Tree Zhengjing Group as an example, simulate the velocity, flow and impact of debris flow caused by six torrential rain scenarios in Jiuzhaigou in 20, 50, 100, 200, 500, and 1000 years, and establish six scenarios of debris flow and trees. The vulnerability of the Zhengjing Group; predict potential losses and casualties in six scenarios; combined with acceptable risks, propose future natural disaster prevention and risk reduction measures for Jiuzhaigou Shuzhengzhai.