Abstract
Clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) refers to the initial clinical episode with symptoms suggestive of multiple sclerosis (MS). Due to limited number of long-term follow-up studies, progression pattern from CIS to more advanced stages remains unclear. In the current study, we constructed a Markov model to simulate the natural course of CIS. The model estimated the probabilities of transition from CIS to more advanced disease stages and the duration needed for the progression. The analysis showed: (1) CIS is a solid disease identity: more than 85% of the subjects with a diagnosis of CIS progress to RRMS or more advanced stages within 20 years; (2) the reduction of life expectancy in subjects with CIS is marginal.
Highlights
Knowledge of the natural course of Clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) can be used to predict disease development as well as to guide the initiation and cessation of disease-modifying treatments
The results revealed that over a 50-year period, patients initially diagnosed with CIS typically progressed to RRMS over a 10-year interval
Much progress has been made in terms of understanding the cause, pathogenesis and risk factors of CIS24–27
Summary
Isolated syndrome (CIS) refers to the initial clinical episode with symptoms suggestive of multiple sclerosis (MS). Due to limited number of long-term follow-up studies, progression pattern from CIS to more advanced stages remains unclear. With regard to the natural history of CIS, comprehensive cohort studies have revealed that patients diagnosed with CIS may experience four stages: CIS, relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS), secondary progressive MS (SPMS) and death[3,4,5]. We used a Markov model to synthesize available information about the natural course of MS after CIS. A Markov model was used to simulate the natural course of MS from the initial episode of CIS, and to predict the transition probabilities, life expectancies and theoretical prognoses of patients who had not been treated prophylactically with any disease-modifying drugs
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
