NATO's New Trajectories after the Wales Summit

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Abstract: NATO is seeing something of a rebirth manifested by the Wales summit in September 2014. The summit did not fix all NATO's woes, but it did address a number of them, especially the reconfigured security situation in Europe. However, it remains unclear how NATO can add to its already full plate, especially during a time of personnel cuts and zero-growth budgets. ********** When the North Atlantic Alliance first announced in November 2013 that it would hold its next summit September 2014 in Wales, NATO watchers anticipated the meeting would be a rather ordinary affair. The summit was expected to focus largely on the concluding chapter of the Alliance's extensive involvement in Afghanistan--a kind of self-congratulatory denouement to a decade of war. Of course, all that changed in early and mid-2014, as Russia first invaded and then annexed Crimea, and later invaded the Donbas in the apparent hope of adding yet more Ukrainian territory. In so doing, Russia fundamentally altered the security situation in Europe, and during the Alliance's gathering in Wales its leaders wasted no time in noting that fact in their summit declaration--indeed, it was the second sentence: Russia's aggressive actions against Ukraine have fundamentally challenged our vision of a Europe whole, free, and at peace. (1) For several allies in Eastern Europe, this statement amounted to a regrettable I told you so, and they have since clamored for a robust, allied response. Yet to other allies in Southern Europe, the threat of Russia remains less compelling given illegal migration, smuggling, and other illicit activities across the Mediterranean Sea. Meanwhile, some in Western Europe--especially those struggling with anemic economic growth or those interested in protecting lucrative business dealings with Russia--were hoping Moscow's actions represented a passing storm rather than full-blown climate change. For the United States, navigating these various interests has required walking the line between doing too much on the one hand--thereby negating the incentive for allies to pull their fair share--and not doing enough on the other--thereby weakening the Alliance and encouraging Moscow's adventurism. Despite these challenges, the Alliance has seen something of a rebirth due to the Wales summit. Certainly the Alliance's approach toward some of the subjects addressed in Wales--such as defense spending, or energy security--reflected tired methods or ongoing, unresolved debates among the allies. However, there were several issues--such as a renewed focus on maneuver warfare readiness, the rotational stationing of allied troops east of Germany, reversing the downsizing of NATO's command structure, and tightening the linkage between cyber-attacks and Article 5--where the Alliance appears indeed to have been rejuvenated with a sense of purpose and intent. Alliance Purpose and Missions In terms of its broad approach toward national security, NATO officials reiterated the three-fold purpose of the Alliance at Wales--collective defense, crisis management, and cooperative security. (2) This announcement was particularly important in the face of collective exhaustion following major combat operations in Afghanistan and the return of an aggressive dynamic Russian threat in the East. It would be easy to argue the Alliance, now returning home from Afghanistan, should refocus on strengthening itself for upholding Article 5, territorial defense. (3) However, it is clear several NATO member--especially the United States--still want an Alliance capable of contributing to collective defense and security, not only in Europe, but beyond it as well. (4) Whether to focus on one of NATO's three overarching objectives or to maintain equal emphasis on all of them is not merely a theoretical or diplomatic question. Such discussions have concrete implications for defense planners and military leaders. …