Nationally Validated Scoring System to Predict Unplanned Reoperation and Readmission after Breast Reduction.

Abstract

Reduction mammoplasty continues to be a commonly sought procedure with complication rates ranging from 4.3 to 8.2%. In the current study, we sought to identify the clinical and preoperative risk factors for unplanned reoperation and readmission within the first postoperative month on a national scale. Patients who underwent reduction mammoplasty from the ACS-NSQIP 2012-2019 database were analyzed to determine rates of reoperation and readmission within 30 days of the initial breast surgery. The cohort was divided into 60 and 40% random testing and validation samples. A multivariable logistic regression analysis was then performed to isolate independent factors of unplanned readmission and reoperation using the testing sample (n = 22,743). The predictors were weighted according to beta coefficients to develop an integer-based clinical risk score predictive of complications. This system was then validated using receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis of the validation sample (n = 15,162). A total of 37,905 reduction mammoplasties were analyzed. 1.3% of patients had an unplanned readmission. Independent risk factors for unplanned readmission included age older than the median of 44 years (p < 0.01), inpatient procedure (p < 0.01), smoking (p < 0.01), hypertension (p = 0.01), COPD (p < 0.05), BMI ≥ 35 (p < 0.01), and operation time greater than the median of 142 minutes ( p < 0.01). The factors were integrated into a scoring system, ranging from 0 to 36, and an ROC analysis revealed an area under the curve of 0.66. 1.9% of patients underwent unplanned reoperation. Independent risk factors for unplanned reoperation in this population included age older than the median of 44 years (p < 0.01), inpatient status (p < 0.01), and a history of bleeding disorders (p < 0.05). The factors were integrated into a scoring system, ranging from 0 to 25, and the ROC analysis revealed an area under the curve of 0.61. We present a validated scoring system to better inform patients about their risk for unplanned reoperation and readmission following reduction mammoplasty. This system will enable surgeons to optimize patient selection and interventions in order to decrease morbidity and unnecessary health-care expenditure. This journal requires that authors assign a level of evidence to each article. For a full description of these Evidence-Based Medicine ratings, please refer to the Table of Contents or the online Instructions to Authors www.springer.com/00266.