National resilience assessment and improvement based on multi-source data: Evidence from countries along the belt and road

Abstract

National resilience is a consensus benchmark to characterize the ability of disaster resistance of a country. The occurrence of various disasters and the ravages of COVID-19 have created urgent needs in assessing and improving the national resilience of countries, especially for countries along the Belt and Road (i.e., B&R countries) with multiple disasters with high frequency and great losses. To accurately depict the national resilience profile, a three-dimensional assessment model based on multi-source data is proposed, where the diversity of losses, fusion utilization of disaster and macro-indicator data, and several refined elements are involved. Using the proposed assessment model, the national resilience of 64 B&R countries is clarified based on more than 13,000 records involving 17 types of disasters and 5 macro-indicators. However, their assessment results are not optimistic, the dimensional resilience are generally trend-synchronized and individual difference in a single dimension, and approximately one-half of countries do not obtain resilience growth over time. To further explore the applicable solutions for national resilience improvement, a coefficient-adjusted stepwise regression model with 20 macro-indicator regressors is developed based on more than 19,000 records. This study provides the quantified model support and a solution reference for national resilience assessment and improvement, which contributes to addressing the global national resilience deficit and promoting the high-quality development of B&R construction.