NATIONAL NONTIDAL SEA LEVEL FORECASTS ON A COASTAL WAVEGUIDE

Diana Greenslade ,Xiaobing Zhou,Gary B. Brassington ,Andy Taylor

doi:10.9753/icce.v36v.currents.26

Abstract

An approach to reduce gridded forecast data to novel waveguide coordinates is demonstrated; informed by the literature on coastally trapped waves. This does not produce new forecasts per se, but reduces data to a useful model-independent physically ordered array. Discussion is limited to the Australian mainland and forecast systems currently maintained in national operations. Heterogenous forecast models are considered with regard to the development of "seamless" sea level services across timescales.Recorded Presentation from the vICCE (YouTube Link): https://youtu.be/jlJO_dxHwuw

Highlights

Many coastal activities are organised around expectations of still water levels over lead times of days to weeks
The extent to which these systems can already provide useful guidance about coastal sea level is a relevant baseline question to ask in the consideration of future model development choices
A variant of the operational surge model [A] was created that excluded pressure forcing in order to render the anomaly signals more comparable with systems [B] and [C]. This investigation takes an end-user view of the forecast data wherein the underlying simulation methods are effectively treated as proverbial black-boxes. As this is one of the first investigations into the coastal sea level signal of the seasonal model, we start with the raw model run output as opposed to the statistically processed products already in use for atmospheric fields

Summary

Introduction

Many coastal activities are organised around expectations of still water levels over lead times of days to weeks. 'SEAMLESS' STRATEGY The Australian Bureau of Meteorology is strategically working towards more "seamless" weather services that integrate forecasts across timescales; and seamless sea level fits within that scope. The Bureau's operational suite of systems already includes ocean models that in principle carry sea level information across a wide range of timescales.

Results

Conclusion