National Identities and Bilateral Relations in East Asia Over the Next Decade: Will the Downward Spiral Continue?

Abstract

National identities have wreaked havoc on diplomacy in East Asia, especially over the past few years, says Gilbert Rozman, and they demand keen attention if bilateral relations are to improve. Looking forward, Rozman analyses three perspectives: (1) differentiating national identity from nationalism, while linking the evolving expressions of identity in China, Japan, and South Korea to international relations; (2) specifying various dimensions of national identity—not just historical memory—that are affecting external relations with an eye to how their impact may be changing; and (3) anticipating factors that could affect the impact of identities on regional bilateral relations, keeping in mind the factors that left an imprint over the recent decade. His arguments draw on a multi-dimensional framework for the analysis of the national identities of East Asia and its application to bilateral relations: China and Japan, Japan and South Korea, China and South Korea, and China and the United States with attention to Japan-US and South Korea-US relations. Rozman concludes that, on all dimensions of national identity, the prognosis is not encouraging for narrower identity gaps between China and Japan or the United States. Ideology is reviving as China’s choice, raising the prospect that it will become the US choice, too. Despite some progress on global problem solving, as in the case of climate change, international relations—the world system, regionalism, and the role of the United States—show that the region’s main identity divides keep hardening. According to Rozman, this is the situation that threatens to complicate diplomacy, focused on expanding shared interests, over the coming decade.