National food security in Bangladesh to 2050

Abstract

Food security in Bangladesh, with particular reference to rice and wheat was investigated by examining trends in yields, area of cropping and overall production in recent decades. Prospects for continued increases in yield and area of the different rice crops and of wheat, considering the impact of climate change, suggest that continued large increases in production were likely. Demand for rice and other food will increase for many decades with the growing population. The range of projections was compared with recent population growth as well as the impacts of possible shifts in food preferences on the demand for rice and wheat. Demand for rice production in 2050 for a medium variant population projection is expected to be 14 % less than the most conservative projection. Wheat production appears likely to remain less than demand by up to 76 % in 2050, though it has the potential to increase sufficiently to meet demand. This analysis should help policy makers to take appropriate actions for maintaining Bangladesh’s food security in the future.