National energy security early-warning pattern design and simulation analysis based on CAS

Abstract

The current rising international oil price has enhanced the energy cost large scale which the Chinese economy grew, and the issue on national energy security has become the subject which the Chinese government and the society paid attention highly. Obviously national energy security system has characteristics of multitudinous influence factor, strong relationship between variables and existing mutual game phenomena. Complex adaptive system theory provides a new mentality and points out a new direction for us to analyze this kind of question. On the base of appraising theory of complex adaptive system, a new early-warning paradigm based on CAS — — REPAST(one kind of research tools of CAS) modeling for national energy security early-warning, has been proposed. After analyzing the implication and characteristic of national energy security early-warning, the paper has proposed to simulate the actual movement situation of national energy system utilizing modeling method of complex adaptive system, and has introduced this simulation activity in the early-warning research of national energy security, then has established the framework of early-warning system of national energy security based on complex adaptive system. Finally the further research work has been pointed out.