National and provincial population-based incidence and mortality of skin cancer in Iran; 1990-2016.

Abstract

To estimate the national and provincial estimates of incidence, mortality and burden of skin cancer in Iran from 1990 to 2016. The data for incidence and mortality rates were collected from the National and Subnational Burden of Diseases (NASBOD) project. We employed a two-stage spatiotemporal model to estimate cancer incidence based on sex, age, province and year. The national and subnational age and gender specific trends were calculated from 1990 to 2016. Mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) was considered as an indicator of cancer care quality. At the national level, the age standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of skin cancer decreased 1.29 times, from 23.6 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 17.1-31.1) per 100000 persons in 1990 to 18.2 (95% UI, 15.8-20.6) in 2016; a similar trend was seen in both males and females. The highest ASIR was seen in 2000. National estimates of the age standardized mortality rate (ASMR) steadily decreased from 2.8 per 100000 persons (95% UI, 1.9-4.1) in 1990 to 0.2 (95% UI, 0.1-0.3) per 100000 persons in 2015. The MIR decreased continuously from 1990 to 2015 in all provinces and among both genders. The age standardized rate of years of life lost also decreased 8.7 times, from 30.1 (95% UI, 20.2-45.1) in 1990 to 3.5 (95% UI, 2.3-5.3) in 2015. During the study period, skin cancer ASIR, ASMR and burden steadily decreased among the Iranian population. The declining MIR for all provinces from 1990 to 2015 was a proxy of early detection and high-quality medical care for skin cancer in Iran. These results can be beneficial to policymakers and health planners to make correct decisions and determine proper resource allocation.