Nate Silver and Campaign 2012: Sport, the Statistical Frame, and the Rhetoric of Electoral Forecasting

Abstract

Political communication scholars have long noted the prevalence of sports metaphors in media coverage of campaigns, especially through references to the “horse race.” During the 2012 presidential election, however, a cluster of terms associated with science and math emerged as an alternative model for monitoring the campaigns' progress. This “statistical frame” was best symbolized by Nate Silver, a former baseball analyst whose attention to politics was among the most celebrated aspects of the 2012 election. This essay evaluates the rhetorical effect of the statistical frame, which helps to shift attention away from outmoded political communication practices associated with predictions and punditry. This shift has implications for political media, political campaigns, and our understanding of the relationship between politics and sport.