Abstract
In recent years, fertility rates have declined in most wealthy countries. This phenomenon has largely been explained by focusing on the rise of economic uncertainty. We contribute to this debate by arguing that, under uncertain conditions, narratives of the future—i.e., socially conveyed imagined futures—impact individuals’ decision-making about childbearing. To assess this impact, we conducted (for the first time in fertility intention research) a controlled laboratory experiment in two contrasting settings: Florence (Italy, N = 800) and Oslo (Norway, N = 874). Individuals were randomly exposed to a specific positive or negative future economic scenario (treatments) and were compared with individuals who were not exposed to any scenario (control group). Participants were then asked whether they intended to have a child in the next three years. The results showed a clear causal impact of narratives of the future on fertility intentions among the participants. Moreover, when the actual economic condition at the macro- (country context) or micro-level (labor-market status and characteristics) was more favorable, negative narratives of the future played a more crucial role. Conversely, when the actual economic conditions were less favorable, positive narratives of the future proved especially important. We conclude that, in the era of global uncertainty, individuals respond to more than their actual situation and constraints; narratives of the future create a distance experience from the daily routine that plays a potent role by inhibiting or facilitating fertility decision-making.
Highlights
IntroductionSince the late 1980s, a series of global transformations and structural shifts (i.e., the declining importance of national borders for economic transactions; the intensification of worldwide social relations through the information and technology revolution; the deregulation, privatization, and liberalization of national industries and markets; and the rising exposure to volatile job markets) have completely re-shaped domestic institutions beyond recognition (e.g., welfare regimes, employment, education, and transnational production systems) (Harvey, 2007)
Since the late 1980s, a series of global transformations and structural shifts have completely re-shaped domestic institutions beyond recognition (Harvey, 2007)
This paper aims to promote the role of narratives of the future as a crucial lens with which to understand the connections between economic uncertainty and fertility intentions
Summary
Since the late 1980s, a series of global transformations and structural shifts (i.e., the declining importance of national borders for economic transactions; the intensification of worldwide social relations through the information and technology revolution; the deregulation, privatization, and liberalization of national industries and markets; and the rising exposure to volatile job markets) have completely re-shaped domestic institutions beyond recognition (e.g., welfare regimes, employment, education, and transnational production systems) (Harvey, 2007). These globalization trends promised more competitive prices, wider choices, greater freedom, higher living standards, and increased prosperity. Embedded in this contemporary scenario, fertility decisions are taken in a condition of rising uncertainty: as the future is less predictable, decisions are less based on individuals’ forecasting capacity
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