Abstract
ABSTRACT The objective of this review is to discuss the formation of knowledge proposed by Keynes on his Treatise on Probability, and the economic agents’ behavior in an uncertainty scenario presented on his General Theory, by the Narrative Economics’ and Behavioral Economics perspectives. The hypothesis that will be analyzed is that in a keynesian uncertainty scenario, economic agents tend to act according to their context (social, geographic, historic, cultural) spreading narratives by which they identify themselves and orient decisions that cause sensible movements on the economic aggregates. Revisiting the literature, we could conclude that by bringing together the behavioral economy and the narrative economy theory, we could, from the Keynes’ insights on his writings, perceive strong empirical evidence that can be analytically important on the assessment of the economic fluctuations.
Highlights
The objective of this paper is to discuss the formation of knowledge proposed by Keynes in his Treatise on Probability, and the behavior of agents within an uncertainty scenario presented in his General Theory, on the light of the “Narrative Economics”1 and behavioral economy
From the building of narratives and knowledge, we started the questioning that originated this paper: how narratives are related to the changes in expectation, adding or altering information whose result in the formation of new conclusions? our hypothesis is that, within keynesian uncertainty, the economic agents tend to act in accordance with their context, reproducing the narratives with which they identify themselves, driving decisions that, at the end of the day, cause important movements in economic aggregates
As explored by Dow (2008), psychology provides the unconscious motivation for the behavior, highlighting that Keynes suggests heuristic processes that drive the building of expectations, one example being on the planning for the future, in which agents tend to use the present as benchmark
Summary
RESUMO: O objetivo desta resenha é discutir a formação do conhecimento proposto por Keynes em seu Tratado sobre Probabilidade e o comportamento dos agentes econômicos em um cenário de incerteza apresentado em sua Teoria Geral, pelas perspectivas da Economia da Narrativa e Economia Comportamental. A hipótese a ser analisada é que, em um cenário de incerteza keynesiano, os agentes econômicos tendem a agir de acordo com seu contexto (social, geográfico, histórico, cultural), divulgando narrativas pelas quais se identificam, e orientam decisões que causam movimentos sensíveis nos agregados econômicos. Revisitando a literatura, podemos concluir que, reunindo a economia comportamental e a teoria da economia narrativa, a partir dos insights de Keynes sobre seus escritos, podemos perceber fortes evidências empíricas que podem ser analiticamente importantes na avaliação das flutuações econômicas. PALAVRAS-CHAVE: Keynes; Economia da Narrativa; Economia Comportamental
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